Fast Moving Fire East of Chico, CA
June 11th, 2008 categories: This and That
Pushed by strong North winds and dry conditions, this fast moving fire broke out around 12:30 this afternoon.
Now I know this isn’t really real estate sales related information. And, maybe I’m playing a bit too much reporter… But, the “fire dog” in me felt compelled to share a pic, or two.
I first noticed this fire while driving East on Hwy 32 on my way up to Paradise from Chico. I didn’t have my camera at that time. At that time it was probably about 5 acres and initial attack was still responding and air support had yet to arrive. These photos were taken about an hour later when it was probably a couple of hundred acres.
My first concern is for any people, homes and animals located in the fires path to the South. My experience with fire in these conditions has me doubting that this fire will be stopped before threatening homes, especially in the areas in and around Stilson Canyon. And, even scarier if it gets into Butte Creek Canyon. When pushed by 25 mile an hour North winds, fires in these tinder-dry conditions are extremely difficult to stop without some sort of reprieve from mother nature.
I wish everyone well.
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Chico, CA Market Report 5/27/2008
May 27th, 2008 categories: Market Report
Since the previous Market Report 5/12/2008:
27 Single Family Homes have sold in the greater Chico, CA area with an average sales price of, $306,052 and a median sales price of, $285,000. Average days on market of those sold was 53. The most active market with 4 homes sold, was the $280,000 to $284,999 price range.
These figures reflect a 21% decrease in sales activity from the previous 2 week period, a 9% decrease in average sale price and 3% decrease in median sales price. Average days on market improved substantially, from 79 to 53, representing a 33% reduction in days on market for homes sold.
Currently:
440 Single Family Homes are for sale (including those reported as contingent and temporarily off market). 121 Homes are Pending sale. Average days on market of available homes is, 111. The ratio of Pending homes to Active homes is down 3% to 25%.
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Chico Real Estate Market Snaphot
May 23rd, 2008 categories: Market Report
Snapshot Comparison: Average Sold Prices for Chico, CA
1st Quarter 2008:
- 132 Single Family Homes Sold
- Average price of $340,955
- Median price of $292,000
- Average Days on Market, 91
1st Quarter 2007:
- 207 Single Family Homes Sold
- Average price of $366,835
- Median price of $330,500
- Average Days on Market, 92
1st Quarter 2006:
- 187 Single Family Homes Sold
- Average price of $374,134
- Median price of $339,000
- Average Days on Market, 69
Analysis:
The Chico, CA real estate market has experienced continued home price declines in home values as reported during the 1st quarter of the past two years.
- 7% reduction in price from 1st Qtr. 2007 to 1st Qtr. 2008
- 2% reduction in price from 1st Qtr. 2006 to 1st Qtr. 2007
That’s a total of only 9% reduction in average home values comparing 1st Qtr. 2006 to 1st Qtr. 2008, indicating a healthy market correction, but certainly not a collapse in Chico, CA home values. Look for further analysis here as I will compare our local figures with others around the region and the nation.
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Getting Out of the Heard Mentality
May 22nd, 2008 categories: Chico Real Estate
“I Heard on the news that the Real Estate Market will continue to Decline, so I’m going to wait and see What Happens Before I Buy”
You know what I’m talking about. You’ve probably heard something similar to this from clients dozens of times in recent months. Or, you’ve heard it from friends and colleagues. It is the kind of attitude that frustrates markets and stagnates economies.
But, it works both ways. Think back, if you will, to the frenzied activity of just a few short years ago. Back then, when the real estate market was really cooking, the “buzz” was about enormous value gains and fortunes being made. These reports-stimulated by the media- helped to fuel the biggest real estate boom in history. Consumers were driven, despite rationality in many instances, to to jump in and buy because of what they had heard.
Consumers Act Out of Fear
OK. Sure. There are other emotions that drive behavior. Love, greed, anger, etc., I’m sure all play a role in human behavior and decision making. But, from my, perhaps cynical and non-clinical view on this issue, each can be broken down to a baseline sense of fear when talking about consumer behavior.
Look at it this way… When someone is willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars over any rational assessment of value for a home or piece of property, they are not doing it strictly because they love the white picket fence, or because they are angry with competitive buyers or the seller. They do it because they are fearful they are going to miss out on an opportunity someone else might get (OK. That’s kind of greedy).
The flip side is true in a softer, declining kind of market. People are afraid of the opposite- that they will pay too much. In both instances, fear is the primary emotion causing behavior and decision making. So, in a declining market, people tend to wait and see what the next guy is going to do.
Once enough brave people have recognized and acted on the opportunities created by the fearful, “wait and see” people, the cycle will begin again and the “wait and see” people will be chasing the market fearful that they will miss their BIG deal. And, so it goes.
People are Afraid of Looking Stupid
Nobody likes to look stupid. In a rising market- “Everybody’s buying houses and getting rich. Why aren’t you?” “You should have paid that extra 10 grand to get that house. Now, someone else has it!”
Or, in a declining market- “Why did you buy that house? Haven’t you heard that prices are going down even more?”
We may never actually hear these kinds of things, but somewhere in the back of our minds we feel that acting contrary to expected behavior will make us look stupid.
Following the Herd
Yes. Like it or not, in spite of the way we like to view our perceived independence and individualism, our sense of un
iqueness and self-worth, we do tend to do as other people do.
“My neighbor just bought a Hummer.” “I had better get me one of them too.” It doesn’t really seem to matter that gas is 4 bucks a gallon (see previous paragraph about looking stupid), or that you will never take it off road and parking it is nearly impossible. You just know that other people are doing it. Sadly, that is just the way we are. Well, not all of us. But, enough.
Now, this is probably good in many ways. We are social creatures and a certain social predictability is critical to the formation and stabilization of social constructs, including economies. But, it doesn’t mean that our behaviors are always rational or even in our best interest.
Think for Yourself
Break the heard mentality and break away from the herd. I know. It may feel counter-intuitive. But, don’t be afraid to buck the trends. The best opportunities are discovered when the herd is doing one thing and the brave do another.
Educate yourself. Get away from the 24 hour, round the clock news. I recently stepped back from my growing obsession with the back-and-forth channel flipping between CNN and MSNBC, and allowed myself only 30 minutes of TV news a day. I felt better. There are plenty of other resources from which to draw that don’t create the insidious sense of dread caused by constant news-drama.
Read my Blog. Or, better yet, sign up for my feed or email notifications. You don’t have to buy everything I write. But, I do try to provide informative, relevant information that you should find helpful.
Make your decisions for the right reasons. Don’t do anything, including buying or selling real estate, just because it seems to be the thing to do. If you want to get into the market, then do it. Quit waiting for the rest of the herd to tell you it’s OK. Think about investing as long term and don’t buy what you can’t afford. Get away from the “Heard Mentality” and make your move!
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Chico, CA Market Report 5/12/2008
May 12th, 2008 categories: Market Report
Since the last Market Report 4/28/2008:
34 single family homes have sold. 3 Condos have been reported sold.
The average price of Single Family Homes sold: $334,728. Median Price: $293,500. Average Days on Market: 79.
Currently:
425 Single Family Homes and 43 Condos are for sale.
120 Homes are Pending sale. 8 condos are Pending Sale.
The ratio of pending sales to active listings is 28% (down 2% from two weeks ago).
“Upper End” Market Snapshot (Figures for homes sold above $600,000):
1st Quarter 2007.
18 homes sold with an average price of $748,640 and a median price of $738,000. Days on Market, 154.
2nd Quarter 2007.
26 homes sold with an average price of $758,902 and a median price of $756,232. Days on Market, 133.
3rd Quarter 2007.
15 homes sold with an average price of $824,355 and a median price of $765,000. Days on Market, 113.
4th Quarter 2007.
16 homes sold with an average price of $764,403 and a median price of $739,000. Days on Market, 156.
1st Quarter 2008.
12 homes sold with an average price of $769,917 and a median price of $712,000. Days on Market, 165.
April 1, 2008 to current (roughly 1st half of second quarter).
8 homes sold with an average price of $851,000 and a median price of $733,750. Days on Market, 118. Of those homes sold in Chico (excluding one in the Durham area that was listed for $3,000,000 and sold for $1,550,000) the average ratio of sold price to listing price was just a fraction under 95%.
Looking back at the same period 2006 (4/1/2006 to 5/12/2006).
7 homes over $600,000 sold with an average price of $850,000 and a median price of $780,000.
Average price is up slightly this year, compared to two years ago. Median price is down slightly (roughly 6%).
Source: Sierra North Valley Multiple Listing statistics.
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